Cattle & Sheep Market Intelligence

Australian livestock prices, processing, trade & market context — sources: MLA/NLRS, RBA, ABS, ABARES, NOAA, Beef Central.

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Animal All Cattle Sheep & lamb

Overview

At a glance

Latest from Beef Central

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Livestock Price Indicator

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Beef & Veal Exports — monthly tonnes

By‑destination detail is in the Prices & Stats table (Excel/Copy export). Source: MLA red meat exports ↗

NLRS Weekly Slaughter — by species

Relationships & market signals

Export parity — EYCI vs US 90CL vs A$ (indexed to 100)

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Young-cattle prices are anchored to export demand: when US 90CL imported-beef prices and the A$ move, EYCI tends to follow.

ENSO lead/lag — does La Niña / El Niño move cattle prices?

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ONI ≥ +0.5 °C = El Niño (drier in eastern Australia), ≤ −0.5 °C = La Niña (wetter — drives herd rebuilding/restocker demand).

Known supply‑chain linkages (what to expect)

The standard relationships the industry watches — the heatmap & lead/lag below quantify them from our data.

Export parity → A$ down or US 90CL up ⇒ AU cattle prices up (export demand sets the floor).
Feed grains → wheat/barley/corn up ⇒ feedlot margins down ⇒ feeder‑cattle demand & price down (grain is the biggest feedlot cost). US corn anchors the global feed‑grain price and substitutes for wheat.
Fuel → oil/diesel up ⇒ freight & on‑farm costs up ⇒ farmgate netback down (most at remote saleyards); also lifts fertiliser.
Fertiliser/urea → used as pasture fertiliser and as a feed supplement (non‑protein nitrogen in lick blocks) ⇒ direct grazier input cost.
Climate (ENSO) → La Niña (wet) ⇒ pasture & restocking ⇒ prices up with a lag; El Niño (dry) ⇒ destocking ⇒ short‑term falls, then tighter supply.
Supply → high slaughter / herd liquidation ⇒ more meat now ⇒ softer prices short‑term, firmer later as the herd shrinks.
Macro → higher interest rates ⇒ dearer restocker finance ⇒ softer restocker demand; the A$ is the master switch for export returns.

Price & statistics summaries — latest vs trailing 12 months

Macro — rates, inflation & commodity prices

RBA Cash Rate Target — 10 years

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ABS CPI — All groups (index)

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Brent crude oil (US$/bbl)

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US diesel — pump price (US$/gal)

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US retail diesel — a proxy for Australian on‑farm & livestock‑transport fuel (no free AU diesel series exists). It tracks global crude, but AU prices differ on freight, excise and the A$.

Urea / fertiliser (price index)

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Freight & shipping

No free live feed (Baltic Dry / Freightos are paywalled). Reference: Baltic Exchange ↗

ABARES — weekly commodity prices

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Global commodity prices

Weather & climate

ENSO — NOAA Oceanic Niño Index (3 yrs)

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No single global authority "declares" El Niño — each agency uses its own threshold, so they can disagree near the boundary. We track NOAA's ONI (El Niño ≥ +0.5 °C). BOM is stricter (needs Niño 3.4 ≥ +0.8 °C plus trade‑wind/SOI/cloud signals), and JMA/NIWA differ again — check the BOM link below for Australia's call.